Risk Early Warning Model of Grid Engineering Project Based on System Dynamics

摘要

Timely and effective risk early warning helps managers to take relative measures in time, therefore to control risk factors as well as reduce risk occurrence probability or loss. As for the risk management of grid engineering projects in China, system dynamics method was used to establish the cost and schedule risk early warning model at first and then the construction process of one transmission line project in western China was simulated. The results indicated that the risk occurrence was effectively prevented due to the timely adjustment of construction progress after risk warning signals being sent out. Furthermore, corresponding analogue-control and result-display interface to the established model was set up, which can simulate the risk early warning values of grid engineering projects under different circumstances.