Forensic Schedule Analysis on Risk Adjusted Schedules

摘要

With increasing time and cost pressure from owners, it is likely that risk-adjustedschedules will expand beyond their current uses and become more common in buildings andinfrastructure construction. Risk-adjusted CPM schedules use computer modeling to analyzethe likely fluctuation of activity durations resulting from a range of uncertainties and risks, andthen analyze the effects of the variations on the schedules float as different chains of activitiesare given different durations and the amount of float changes. The result is a schedule that hasa series of potential critical paths with varying degrees of likelihood, rather than a single CriticalPath and sub-critical paths. Forensic schedule analysis, however, is predicated on identifyingthe “single” contemporaneous critical path, often defined as the path with zero float. So whathappens when the CPM schedule series has been risk-adjusted so that float is variable andmore activities paths are critical? This paper will discuss a theoretical model for performing adelay analysis on a project where the initial baseline and all updates were adjusted for risk.