Using VEC formulation for energy demand and consumption forecasts for short and long term considering the impact of price-elasticity and external shocks

摘要

The paper presents the models that were developed to make forecasts for demand and electricity consumption for the horizons from 1 to 6 months (short term) and from 1 to 5 years (long term). In order to grasp the uncertainties mentioned above, it aims at measuring how shocks on explanatory variables, such as income, will reverberate on the consumption. These results will be used to formulate various scenarios, inputs necessary for strategic planning of the DSO.