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Regional frequency analysis of rainfall extremes in the Pearl River Basin using L moments method

机译:利用L矩法测定珠江盆地降雨极端区域频率分析

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This paper presents a method for regional frequency analysis of rainfall-extreme regimes in the Pearl River Basin (PRB) using the well-known L-moments approach. Results indicate that: (1) The entire Pearl River Basin (40 sites) can be categorized into 6 regions by cluster analysis together with consideration of the topography and spatial patterns of mean precipitation in the basin. The results of goodness-of-fit measures indicate that the GNO, GLO, GEV, and PE3 distributions fit well for most of the basin for different HOM regions, but their performances are slightly different in term of curve fitting; (2) The estimated quantiles and their biases approximated by Monte Carlo simulation demonstrate that the results are reliable enough for the return periods of less than 100 years; (3) The spatial variations of precipitation in different return periods (Return period= 1, 10, 50 and 100 years) increase from the upstream to downstream at the regional scale. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first attempt to conduct a systematic regional frequency analysis on various annual precipitation extremes in the Pearl River Basin and even in China. These findings are expected to contribute to exploring the complex spatio-temporal patterns of extreme rainfall in this basin in order to reveal the underlying linkages between precipitation and floods from a broad geographical perspective.
机译:本文介绍了珠江盆地(PRB)降雨极端制度的区域频率分析方法,采用了众所周知的L-MOCENTS方法。结果表明:(1)整个珠江盆(40个位点)可以通过聚类分析分析为6个地区,并考虑到盆地的平均沉淀的形貌和空间模式。健美措施的结果表明,GNO,GLO,GEV和PE3分布适合不同HOM区域的大多数盆地,但它们在曲线拟合期间的性能略有不同; (2)Monte Carlo仿真近似的估计量数及其偏差证明了结果足以让返回期限不到100年; (3)不同返回期间降水的空间变化(返回期= 1,10,50和100年)从区域规模上游增加。据我们所知,本研究首次试图对珠江流域甚至在中国的各种年降水极值进行系统区域频率分析。这些调查结果预计有助于探索该盆地中极端降雨的复杂时空模式,以揭示从广泛的地理视角来揭示降水和洪水之间的潜在联系。

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