Where are the electricity load hot spots in 2035? A load curve analysis considering demographic and technological changes

摘要

Model-based analysis is assigned a central role in the discussions on how to design the energy system and yet there is substantial need for further research here, especially in mapping power demand and load development with high spatial resolution (NUTS 3). A methodological approach is developed in this study that addresses this research gap using sequential bottom-up modelling analyses. The result shows that the sectoral composition of electricity demand in particular causes regional variations in load patterns. Using the method we developed, conclusions can also be drawn regarding future regional load development. A future increase in peak loads is to be expected, which will be concentrated on regions with high levels of electric mobility. It will not be possible to absorb this increase by smart management of vehicle charging alone.