Intelligent estimation method for demographic effect onto the research and development sector in Hungary

摘要

This paper's aim is to investigate the demographic effect onto the research and development sector (R&D). The basis of this question is the serious demographic trend in Hungary, which causes to decrease the number of students in high education. From the 2008 top level, till 2012 there was a dramatic 30% reduction and additional near 35% decrease is probable till 2030. The investigation uses the public data of the Central Statistical Office of Hungary and Educational Office of Hungary. These data contain information on demographic data, scientometrics data and financial data. The main method is correlation mining, clustering and estimation with help of Self Organizing Map (SOM). It was found that the number of publications will decrease about 28%??14.7% in the consequences of demographic changes.