The forecasting for GDP development of Liaoning province based on Grey System Theory

摘要

By using the GM (1, 1) model in Grey System Theory, we forecast the future trend of the economy development and analysis the current economy problems which existing in Liaoning province. Then we select the date of gross domestic product from 2005 to 2012 in Liaoning province as sample data, build the mathematical model of the economy and get 2013 to 2016 prediction of gross domestic product. The result shows: the economic growth in Liaoning province is strong, and economic growth will not slow in next five years, but the In-depth analysis found that the current industrial structure in Liaoning province exist the trend of economic imbalance and productivity levels is lower. In order to solve these problems, the paper points out that should be expand domestic demand and export, focus on solving the aspects of environmental protection and the people's livelihood, and improve the first and third industry to contribution rate of economic growth so that the development of economy in Liaoning province is sustainable.