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Using Geographic Information System-based Ecologic Niche Models to Forecast the Risk of Hantavirus Infection in Shandong Province China

机译:基于地理信息系统的生态位模型预测山东省汉坦病毒感染的风险

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摘要

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an important public health problem in Shandong Province, China. In this study, we combined ecologic niche modeling with geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing techniques to identify the risk factors and affected areas of hantavirus infections in rodent hosts. Land cover and elevation were found to be closely associated with the presence of hantavirus-infected rodent hosts. The averaged area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.864, implying good performance. The predicted risk maps based on the model were validated both by the hantavirus-infected rodents' distribution and HFRS human case localities with a good fit. These findings have the applications for targeting control and prevention efforts.
机译:肾综合征出血热(HFRS)是中国山东省的重要公共卫生问题。在这项研究中,我们将生态位模型与地理信息系统(GIS)和遥感技术相结合,以确定啮齿动物宿主中汉坦病毒感染的危险因素和受影响区域。发现土地覆盖和海拔高度与汉坦病毒感染的啮齿动物宿主的存在密切相关。接收器工作特性曲线下的平均面积为0.864,表明性能良好。基于该模型的预测风险图已通过汉坦病毒感染的啮齿动物的分布和HFRS人体病例的位置进行了很好的验证。这些发现可用于控制和预防工作。

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