ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF RURAL FAMILY CONSUMPTION ON FOOD,EDUCATION AREAS AND BASED ON GREY SYSTEM THEORY—A CASE STUDY OF LIAONING PROVINCE,CHINA

摘要

In order to make clear of the development of rural consuming capability and forecast the tendency of rural consumption level in Liaoning Province,P.R.China.Based on the statistical data of “statistical yearbook in Liaoning province” from 2009 to 2019,the gray correlation analysis method was applied.The present study was conducted to analyze the consumption of food area like grain,meat,the fruit,aquatic products and the non- food area like education and other in the last decade,then to use the GM(1,1) model to forecast the tendency of rural consumption level.According to grey correlation analysis results,the results showed that the consumption on corn,rice,potato and total crop; apple and total fruit; poultry meat,pork and total meat,marine product and total aquatic products are relatively closer.The relationship of education consumption and household income are the closest.According to grey prediction results,the total consumption of agricultural products and education investment will increase from 2020 to 2025.The growth rate of education investment should be pay more attention.The consumption of pear,poultry,aquatic products growth rate will be faster.