TRACKING TRANSPORTATION AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION ACROSS A NATION: APPLICATION OF THE RUBMRIO MODEL FOR U.S. TRADE PATTERNS

摘要

This study describes and applies a random-utility-based multiregional input-output(RUBMRIO) model for U.S. transportation, production, and trade across over-3,000contiguous counties, using the Freight Analysis Framework as its primary data source. Drivenby foreign export demands, RUBMRIO simulates trade patterns of commodities amongcounties based on input-output expenditure shares and a nested-logit model for shipmentorigins and mode. A variety of network and export-demand scenarios are examined, for theireffects on the distributions of trade flows and production.Changes in export demands of different commodities highlight the importance of foodand petroleum manufacturing sectors, in terms of production and labor-expenditure shifts.Transport cost reductions result in greater effects on total production than similar cost increases,with the most impacted U.S. counties centrally located. Changes in travel times along theInterstate Highway 40 corridor have ripple effects, affecting trade patterns everywhere, withthe greatest changes observed around the corridor’s midpoint.