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Changes in Evacuation Decisions between een Hurricanes Ivan and Katrina

机译:伊恩飓风伊万和卡特里娜飓风之间疏散决定的变化

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Hurricanes cause some of the worst traffic conditions, affecting evacuees' abilities toreach safety before they are subjected to high winds, heavy rain, and flooding. This paper isamong the few to use a panel survey to examine similar household decisions over consecutivehurricanes. Our study focuses on Hurricanes Ivan and Katrina, which were of similar strengthand followed similar paths, and is fairly comprehensive in the number of traffic related decisionswe consider. We use contingency tables, binary logit models, and Goodman and Kruskal'sgamma measure to examine the effects of prior decisions on (1) whether to evacuate or not, (2)day of departure, (3) destination type and location, (4) number of household vehicles taken, and(5) route selection reason. Through the statistical analyses, we discovered that (1) citizenslargely made the same evacuate/stay decision for Katrina as they did for Ivan and higher incomeswere not significant in changing this decision, (2) some evacuees departed earlier, but evacueeslargely departed on the last day possible, (3) evacuees mostly select the same type ofaccommodations and in – or out-of-the-county decisions in consecutive evacuations, (4) thenumber of household vehicles used in the evacuation does not decrease, and (5) route guidanceas a selection criterion does not depend on prior evacuation experience.
机译:飓风造成一些最恶劣的交通状况,影响撤离者的能力 在遭受大风,大雨和洪水之前必须达到安全。本文是 在少数人中使用小组调查来连续检查类似的家庭决策 飓风。我们的研究重点是飓风伊万和卡特里娜飓风,它们的强度相似 并遵循类似的路径,并且在与交通相关的决策数量上相当全面 我们认为。我们使用列联表,二进制logit模型以及Goodman和Kruskal的 伽玛度量,以检查先前决策对(1)是否撤离,(2) 出发日期,(3)目的地类型和位置,(4)乘坐的家用车辆的数量以及 (5)选路原因。通过统计分析,我们发现(1)公民 卡特里娜飓风的撤离/停留决定很大程度上与伊万和更高收入者的撤离/停留决定相同 对更改此决定并不重要,(2)一些撤离人员较早离开,但撤离人员 在很大程度上可能是在最后一天出发的,(3)撤离人员大多选择了相同类型的 住宿和连续撤离的县内或县外决策,(4) 疏散中使用的家用车辆数量没有减少,并且(5)路线指引 作为选择标准并不取决于先前的疏散经验。

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