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Exposure Measures and Injury Frequency Models for Analysis of Cyclist Safety at Signalized Intersections

机译:信号交叉口骑车人安全性分析的暴露量度和伤害频率模型

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To address the rising issue of cyclist safety at signalized intersections, establishing therelationship between motor-vehicle and cyclist flows, geometric design and built environmentcharacteristics is fundamental. To date, there is very little empirical evidence of the impact ofthese factors on cyclist injury occurrence and on the most effective countermeasures in NorthAmerica. In this regard, this research (i) proposes a new approach to measure risk exposure and(ii) develops cyclist injury frequency models. Three separate definitions of risk exposure areused: completely aggregated flows, motor-vehicle flows aggregated by movement type andpotential conflicts between motor vehicles and cyclists. As an application environment, a sampleof signalized intersections on the island of Montreal was used, as well as data comprising ofdisaggregate motor-vehicle and cyclist flows. Several negative binomial models were fitted tothe data. Among the results, this study shows that cyclist collisions are sensitive to changes incyclist flows: a 10% increase in bicycle flow is associated with a 5.3% increase in the frequencyof cyclist injuries. Surprisingly, motor-vehicle volumes at the intersection level do not have asignificant effect on cyclist collision frequency. However, when motor-vehicle flows areconsidered based on movement type, it becomes apparent that right turn movements have a greateffect on accident occurrence. Similar results, indentifying right turns as having the greatesteffect on cyclist injuries, are achieved when potential conflicts are considered. It was also foundthat the number of bus stops in the proximity of intersections increases cyclist injury occurrence.Some geometric design factors such as presence of median and three-leg intersections weretested; however, their effect was found to be statistically non-significant.
机译:为了解决信号交叉路口骑自行车者不断上升的安全问题,我们建立了 机动车与单车流量,几何设计和建筑环境之间的关系 特征是根本。迄今为止,几乎没有经验证据表明 这些因素对北方骑自行车者的伤害发生以及最有效的对策 美国。在这方面,这项研究(i)提出了一种新的方法来衡量风险敞口和 (ii)建立骑车人受伤频率模型。风险暴露的三个单独定义是 使用:完全汇总的流量,按流量类型汇总的机动车流量和 机动车和骑自行车的人之间潜在的冲突。作为应用程序环境,示例 使用了蒙特利尔岛上的信号交叉路口,以及包含以下内容的数据: 分解机动车和单车流量。拟合了几个负二项式模型 数据。在这些结果中,这项研究表明,骑车人的碰撞对自行车的变化很敏感。 自行车流量:自行车流量增加10%,频率增加5.3% 骑自行车的人受伤。出人意料的是,交叉路口的机动车容积没有 对骑车人的碰撞频率有重大影响。但是,当汽车流动时 根据运动类型考虑,很明显右转运动有很大的作用。 对事故发生的影响。结果相似,将右转识别为最大 当考虑到潜在的冲突时,可以达到对骑车人受伤的效果。也被发现 交叉路口附近公交车站的数量增加了骑自行车者受伤的发生率。 一些几何设计因素,例如中线和三腿相交的存在是 经过测试然而,发现它们的影响在统计学上不显着。

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