System dynamics modelling for assessing promotion strategies of biof uels used in land transportation

摘要

This article presents the development and use of a system dynamics model of the interactions of the food commodities and biofuels production systems. The principal aim is to develop a sense of the mechanisms responsible for the impact of biofuels on the production output and prices of food commodities. The model and the associated discussion are confined to biofuels for the transportation sector of the European Union. Simulations of the model with incentive policies for promoting biofuels in the European Union showed that beyond a certain point, the rate at which biomass production expands can be problematic with regard to land availability for agricultural products grown for human consumption. Nevertheless, simulations indicated that process technology increasing the productivity of biofuel production can act as a balancing factor.