A Multi-Agent System for Predicting Future Event Outcomes(Extended Abstract)

摘要

Forecasting the outcome of events that will happen in the future is a frequently indulged and important task for humans. Despite the ubiquity of the forecasts, predicting the outcome of future events is a challenging task for humans or even computers - it requires extremely complex calculations involving a reasonable amount of domain knowledge, significant amounts of information processing and accurate reasoning. Recently, a market-based paradigm called prediction markets has shown ample success to solve this problem by using the aggregated 'wisdom of the crowds' to predict the outcome of future events. This is evidenced from the successful predictions of actual events done by the Iowa Electronic Marketplace(IEM), Tradesports, Hollywood Stock Exchange, the Gates-Hillman market, etc., and by companies such as Hewlett Packard, Google and Yahoo's Yootles.