ESTIMATING THE EXPOSURE TO SALMONELLA TYPHIMURIUM FROM CONSUMPTION OF IRISH FRESH PORK SAUSAGES

摘要

The exposure to Salmonella Typhimurium associated to the consumption of Irish fresh pork sausages was estimated using a simulation model underpinned by predictive microbiology data of Salmonella in pork sausage, by specific Irish retail and consumption data, and by results from parallel frying and grilling experiments. Considering the contaminated sausage packs only (4.6%; 95% CI: 3.2-6.4%), the estimated initial levels of Salmonella in fresh pork sausages at retail (69.7 CFU/g; 95% CI: 15-200 CFU/g) reduced to mean concentrations of 0.045 CFU/g (95% CI: 0.021-0.623 CFU/g) after frying and 0.078 CFU/g (95% CI: 0.054-1.668 CFU/g) after grilling. Exposure to Salmonella (0.117 CFU; 95% CI: 0.0208-1.919 CFU from fried servings and 0.199 CFU; 95% CI: 0.061-7.409 CFU from grilled servings) resulted from the consumption of a very few moderately contaminated servings, as the model predicted that the probabilities of survival of Salmonella cells in cooked servings were very low at 0.59% (95% CI: 0.45-0.73%) for frying and 0.74% (95% CI: 0.59-0.86%) for grilling. However, in these fried and grilled undercooked servings, Salmonella numbers were expected to be ～250 CFU (95% CI: 0.03-1572 CFU) and ～687 CFU (95% CI: 0.35-3597 CFU), respectively. The estimated Salmonella concentration in undercooked fried sausages (～4.4 CFU/g; 95% CI: 0.001-37.098 CFU/g) compared well with experimental findings.