Research of Demand Forecasting Methods and Development of Forecasting Support System Based on Supply Chain under Asymmetric Information

摘要

In order to cope with fierce market competition environment and the fast-changing market demand, it is very important to strengthen the information sharing between the upstream enterprises and the downstream enterprises and the forecast should be more accurately. But the enterprises in the supply chain don't want to share their private information for some reasons and they often use single and easy forecasting methods, so the forecasting precision is very low. On this basis, this paper proposes a framework of demand forecasting in the supply chain under asymmetric information environment. This framework can realize cooperation forecasting in the supply chain under asymmetric information and combine the results of many different forecasting methods so that it can obtain the strength of each single forecasting methods and raise the forecasting precision and reduce the stock level under asymmetric information environment. At last, according to the proposed framework, the writer develops a system of demand foreca sting in the supply chain under asymmetric information environment, which reduces the workload and raises the efficiency of the whole supply chain.