Risk Assessment and Early Warning System for Logistics Finance

摘要

Logistics finance is an innovative financial solution which combines goods flow with funds flow, with diverse benefits that appeal to buyers, sellers, logistics enterprises and commercial banks. For example, Commercial banks can widen service ranges and enlarge the loans with lower risks and small and medium-sized enterprises can obtain working capital and speed up their development. Logistics finance has attracted great attention in both academia and in business recently, but the logistics finance has developed in china for only several years and its related mechanisms are still immature, and its participation subjects are diversified, the risk exists in the operation of logistics finance. Therefore, it is very necessary to present quantitative risk analysis to perform on logistics finance. According to the characteristics of complexity, subjectivity and uncertainty of logistics finance, this paper introduces the unascertained theory and fuzzy method to establish early warning model, the model combines the unascertained theory with fuzzy method. Firstly the risk probability and risk loss are given by utilizing the unascertained theory and fuzzy method respectively, and then the whole risk of logistics finance is given according to the mean of risk by the utility function of the risk probability and the risk loss. Finally, an example application is given, where the method was tested, and the relate preventive measures are presented.