Bayesian reliability estimation method for CNC system based on the prior failure rate

摘要

The CNC system failure rate distillation function was deduced to adopt Bayes method, which used binomial probability distribution as the likelihood function kernels, and Beta distribution as the prior distribution. With the fully priori information, failure rate mean and variance was calculated, then the parameter in Beta distribution could be estimated. The 2-parameters Weibull distribution was the optimum fitting distribution of the CNC system failure probability distribution .The Shape parameter and size parameter of Weibull distribution could be estimated by using the failure rate gotten from Bayes formula, then the MTBF also could be estimated.