Paper submitted to ATRS 2010: MORRELL #33

摘要

This paper explores the trade-offs involved in longer term decisions taken by airlinesto improve fuel efficiency and avoid environmental costs. It will lead to a betterunderstanding of the marginal abatement costs and fuel efficiency benefits implied bylonger term fleet renewal decisions.To do this a simplified airline fleet planning model will be built on the basis of whichthe economic viability of several options can be illustrated, including the earlyretirement of aircraft and the introduction of new technology into fleets, as well asalternative assumptions on future fuel prices and efficiency, maintenance costs andnew aircraft programmes.A fleet planning model will provide a general framework for evaluating the NetPresent Value (NPV) advantages or costs of replacing aircraft of various ages withnew technology offering a significant improvement in fuel efficiency (of between 15-35% compared to the best existing models of the same seat capacity).The model will be run using various assumptions for fuel prices, carbon prices pertonne CO2, and existing aircraft age. Ageing aircraft will be penalised through lowerannual utilisation and higher maintenance costs.