Empirical Analysis and Modeling of Drivers’ Response to Variable Message Signs in Shanghai

摘要

Data from loop detectors since 2003 and vehicle license plate recognizers since 2008 are usedto evaluate the impact of VMS messages on drivers’ en-route diversion behavior in this paper.We found an aggregated en-route diversion model based on real-detected data, and find thatdrivers are more sensitive to travel time information than traffic state information; theiren-route behavior will be more rational if information of alternate routes is provided andneighboring VMSs are coordinated. These results are accordant with that of SP survey. In realroad network, from the sensitivity analysis of drivers’ en-route behavior, we find that thecontent of information, peak hours or other periods, off-ramp condition, visibility ofdownstream congestion have significant influence on en-route behavior, which can explainthe obvious difference between the result from en-route model based on SP survey and thereal traffic system.