Research on ecological security prediction in mountain areas based on the artificial neural network —Taken western mountain areas in Shijiazhuang District for example

摘要

Ecological environment security had aroused more and more attentions, and became the focus of human society. The thesis took western mountain areas in Shijiazhuang District for study area, established ecological security prediction indexes under the model of Pressure-State-Response(PSR), and predicted standardized value of each index by using artificial neural network model, then predicted the development trend of ecological security condition in the next 9 years through ecological security calculation and trend curve. Results were as follows: the overall ecological security degree would present rising trend, it would be “better” state in 2007∼2015, and the maximum value would be 0.6940 in 2015, increased by 74.96% than that of 1996 and 21.58% than that of 2006. However, the ecological security degrees would be less than 0.8 each year, showing that the regional ecological environment problems were not completely solved, should take further measures to protect the ecological environment.