Fuzzy Distribution Fitting for Law of Traffic Accidents Based on MATLAB

摘要

The rules of traffic accidents and their hazards in China are studied by virtue of MATLAB and the method of fuzzy mathematics. First, the general trend of linear increase and fluctuant character of the traffic accidents are found by observing the scatter graph of statistical data of traffic accidents in China, which represent a complex nonlinear combinatorial feature. Second, these data are processed by the method of normalization; fuzzy membership function of traffic accident is arrived at. Finally, a nonlinear fuzzy distribution function of traffic accidents is obtained by way of distribution fitting and combinational regression treatment of the data. The result indicates that with time changing, the death toll in Chinaȁ9;s traffic accidents shows the combined upward trend of a linear and Normal distribution fluctuation, the number of the injured shows the upward trend of linear and Sinusoidal fluctuations, accident occurrence and loss both show two-humped Normal distribution. The traffic situation takes a turn for better since 2002. The result can objectively reflect the status distribution and accurately depict the hazard change rule of traffic accidents, which has theoretical significance and application value for forecast and comprehensive control of traffic accidents, thus it can be used as a reference in the research of traffic accidents and decision-making for safety management of concerned departments.