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Can a Zero-Intelligence Plus Model Explain the Stylized Facts of Financial Time Series Data?

机译:零智能加模型可以解释金融时序数据的程式化事实吗?

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Many agent-based models of financial markets have been able to reproduce certain stylized facts that are observed in actual empirical time series data by using "zero-intelligence" agents whose behaviour is largely random in order to ascertain whether certain phenomena arise from market microstructure as opposed to strategic behaviour. Although these models have been highly successful, it is not surprising that they are unable to explain every stylized fact, and indeed it seems plausible that although some phenomena arise purely from market microstructure, other phenomena arise from the behaviour of the participating agents, as suggested by more complex agent-based models which use agents endowed with various forms of strategic behaviour. Given that both zero-intelligence and strategic models are each able to explain various phenomena, an interesting question is whether there are hybrid, "zero-intelligence plus" models containing a minimal amount of strategic behaviour that are simultaneously able to explain all of the stylized facts. We conjecture that as we gradually increase the level of strategic behaviour in a zero-intelligence model of a financial market we will obtain an increasingly good fit with the stylized facts of empirical financial time-series data. We test this hypothesis by systematically evaluating several different experimental treatments in which we incrementally add minimalist levels of strategic behaviour to our model, and test the resulting time series of price returns for the following statistical features: fat tails, volatility clustering, persistence and non-Gaussianity. Surprisingly, the resulting "zero-intelligence plus" models do not introduce more realism to the time series, thus supporting other research which conjectures that some phenomena in the financial markets are indeed the result of more sophisticated learning, interaction and adaptation.
机译:许多基于代理的金融市场模型已经能够通过使用行为在很大程度上随机的“零智能”代理来重现在实际经验时间序列数据中观察到的某些程式化的事实,以确定某些现象是否从市场微观结构中出现反对战略行为。虽然这些模型一直非常成功,但他们无法解释每个程式化的事实并不令人惊讶,但实际上似乎很合理于,尽管一些现象纯粹来自市场微观结构,但其他现象来自参与者的行为,如图所示通过更复杂的基于代理的模型,使用代理商赋予各种形式的战略行为。鉴于零智能和战略模型都能够解释各种现象,一个有趣的问题是是否存在混合,“零智能加”模型,其中包含了同时能够解释所有风格化的战略行为量的最小数量的战略行为事实。我们推测,随着我们逐步提高金融市场零智力模型中的战略行为水平,我们将获得日益良好的经验金融时序数据的风格化事实。我们通过系统地评估几种不同的实验处理来测试这一假设,其中我们逐步增加了对我们的模型的最低战略行为水平,并测试了以下统计特征的所产生的时间序列:脂肪尾,波动聚类,持久性和非高斯。令人惊讶的是,由此产生的“零智能加”模型不会向时间序列引入更多现实主义,从而支持其他研究,这些研究猜测金融市场中的一些现象确实是更复杂的学习,互动和适应的结果。

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