Reservoir Regulations of the Indus River Basin under Different Flow Conditions

摘要

The study developed a preliminary system dynamics model to explore several water management scenarios in the major river systems of the Indus River Basin (IRB) in Pakistan. The performance of the two major reservoirs i.e., Tarbela and Mangla, located on the Indus and Jhelum Rivers, respectively, were evaluated under different flow conditions. Empirical relationships between upstream and downstream locations of each of the existing reservoirs and barrages were developed and were validated against historical flow data. Inflows to the reservoirs were varied across a wide range. The environmental flows in terms of the net contribution to the Arabian Sea, the most downstream location of the IRB, were also calculated under each of the scenarios. The results suggest that the existing conditions can be improved by proper regulations of the reservoirs under different scenarios. However, with the high variation in seasonal flows, infrastructural development will be required to tackle extreme conditions.