不同水源供水与水库运行方案下水利=程群应对干旱能力评价研究--以漳卫河流域为例

摘要

Considering both adjustment of reservoir limited water level and different water supply sources,five combined scenarios have been set.The water shortage situation of the Zhangwei River basin under different scenari-os were analyzed according to the simulation results of water resources optimal allocation model,and based on the drought coping ability index of hydraulic engineering group (HEGdca),the overall drought coping ability of the ba-sin for different scenarios was also assessed.The results show that raising the reservoir limited water level could re-duce the drought coping ability of the whole basin.Both the programs of over-exploitation of groundwater and the South-to-North Water Diversion project can significantly reduce the drought risk.However,from the respective of ecological improvement and environmental protection,inter-basin water transfer is an inevitable choice to solve the problem of drought and water shortage in the study basin.For the Zhangwei River basin,fixed reservoir limited wa-ter level should be adopted to cope with droughts.It is a reasonable pattern of water resources utilization in line with the local conditions that making full use of transferring water as well as part over-exploited groundwater for a certain development stage.%综合考虑不同水库汛限水位和多种供水水源方案设置5种情景方案，通过长系列优化调算分析不同方案下漳卫河流域的缺水状况，并基于干旱应对能力水平指数（HEGdca）评价不同方案下流域水利工程群整体应对不同程度干旱事件的能力。结果表明：抬高汛限水位会降低流域整体应对干旱能力，大量超采地下水和南水北调中线调水方案均能显著提高流域干旱应对水平，但从改善流域生态环境的角度，外流域调水是解决流域干旱缺水问题的必然选择。对漳卫河流域而言，从干旱应对的角度，水库宜采用固定汛限水位的运行方式。充分利用外调水源并适当超采部分地下水，是未来一定的发展阶段内比较符合漳卫河流域实际情况的水资源利用方式。