首页> 外文会议>Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, 2008. PMAPS '08 >Evaluation of Low-Voltage Network Systems Reliability Using Probabilistic Methods
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Evaluation of Low-Voltage Network Systems Reliability Using Probabilistic Methods

机译:使用概率方法评估低压网络系统的可靠性

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Con Edison's distribution systems supply power to more than 3 million customers in New York City and Westchester County. About 85% of the load in the Con Edison service territory is supplied by underground low-voltage network systems. The reliability of underground low-voltage network systems is extremely high and Con Edison uses Network Reliability Index (NRI) programs - the Contingency program and the AutoMonitor program - to evaluate their overall reliability. The NRI programs use failure rates established for cable sections, joints, transformers, and other related equipment based on their age, temperature ranges, voltage levels, and loading. The programs simulate failures using the Monte-Carlo method. The Contingency program is a design tool used to compare the relative reliabilities of each network system, and rank them accordingly. The program runs long-range (20 years) simulations to determine the NRI values for various design configurations. The AutoMonitor program is a real-time operating tool that provides operators with real-time and potential network system reliability information. This program runs short-range (up to 7 days) simulations. NRI programs have been in use in Con Edison for several years and the results of the programs are used to help Con Edison maintain its No. 1 position in providing electric power in North America.
机译:Con Edison的配电系统为纽约市和威彻斯特县的300万客户供电。 Con Edison服务区域中约85%的负载由地下低压网络系统提供。地下低压网络系统的可靠性极高,Con Edison使用网络可靠性指数(NRI)程序(应急程序和AutoMonitor程序)来评估其总体可靠性。 NRI程序使用根据电缆段,接头,变压器和其他相关设备的寿命,温度范围,电压水平和负载确定的故障率。程序使用蒙特卡洛方法模拟故障。应急计划是一种设计工具,用于比较每个网络系统的相对可靠性,并对它们进行相应的排名。该程序将进行长期(20年)模拟,以确定各种设计配置的NRI值。 AutoMonitor程序是一种实时操作工具,可为操作员提供实时和潜在的网络系统可靠性信息。该程序运行短距离(最多7天)模拟。 NRI程序已在Con Edison中使用了几年,这些程序的结果用于帮助Con Edison保持其在北美提供电力方面的第一位。

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