This paper describes a recent modeling project on the dynamics of new housing construction, transformation of outdated dwellings and the impact of both processes on a regional social housing market. The study continues and adds to the work of Forrester and others on urban dynamics. A team of seven stakeholders and experts participated in model construction. The model was constructed over a period of about 14 months and yielded several counterintuitive insights. The housing allocation system proved to have far smaller effect than expected, while the proportion of new greenfield construction to transformation (demolition and new construction within the city) has emerged as a crucial steering factor. The migration multiplier is a very important external parameter. A strategic workshop for policy makers, managers of housing associations and other stakeholders in the region offered a chance to present the final model and operate it in the form of a flight simulator. In line with the recommendations of a recent survey of group model building projects, participants' insights and conclusions from both the project and the workshop are evaluated. The evaluation is based on the Ajzen model and focuses on the effect of group model building on attitudes, intentions and behavior.
展开▼
