Development of Probabilistic Water Demand Forecast for the Tampa Bay Region: AReview of Methodological Features

摘要

In order to develop a better understanding of increases in demand and its implications onwater supply development options, the Tampa Bay Water Authority commissioned thedevelopment of a long-term forecast of water demands. The forecasting effort uses a high-levelof spatial disaggregation and explicitly incorporates uncertainties in long-term growthprojections. The probabilistic model is derived from a recently developed GIS tool constructed atthe traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level, providing reliable and precise estimates of water demandrelationships for prominent user sectors. This approach produces a range of possible futurewater demands, including estimates of the chance of exceeding certain levels of demand over theforecast horizon.