The present invention relates to a kind of long-term water demand prediction methods in area, its long-term plan for being used to establish regional water supply system, by particularly using co-integration model that there is a time-varying coefficient, a kind of method, for effectively predicting the needs to the long-term water system of water supply. By convention, but prediction method is required using the research of co-integration model, it has a time changing factor to predict short-term or long-term requirement among technology, scientific and technological progress influences the change in long term in water requirement and economic structural change, water policy changes, it is not a kind of method, for estimating beneficial effect, it is common for having mistake by the accurate change in water consumption mode of traditional prediction method. Therefore, it can accurately estimate a kind of development of method of the effect of the change in long term in water requirement by emerency request. In addition, the prior art is not present, system software group, the water requirement of predicting long-term is difficult to set up long-term water supply plan. Therefore, in high precision, long-term water demand forecast, the time develops long-term a water supply forecasting method and system and the whole property model of association with a coefficient of variation is used to be required. According to the present invention, long time range water demand prediction method uses co-integration model, has a coefficient of variation, a time series models utensil is by executing format from its long-term water demand prediction, determine the main component for influencing water requirement, the small profits of mistake have the effect that Accurate Prediction can be executed within a.
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