Toll Road Infrastructure Development in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Perspective

摘要

The development of infrastructure, especially toll roads in Indonesia, is critical because if compared with toll roads in other countries like China or Malaysia, Indonesia toll road growth is much slower. This paper will examine the development of toll road infrastructure in Indonesia from 1995 to 2012, and then analyze it with a System Dynamics methodology. At the conceptualization stage of SD methodology, there is a significant gap between forecasts based on the current situation and forecasts based on an econometric data panel method. The results of this paper, based on a current investment process from the Government of Indonesia, is the total toll road construction, based on the government's plan is 2213 km; it will be finished in 2080. It means that toll road construction in Indonesia is very challenging. This paper recommends that to accelerate the construction of toll roads in Indonesia, it should be leveraged with something innovative.