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Of unknowns and uncertainty

机译:未知和不确定

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摘要

There are, or ought to be, clear distinctions between different kinds of uncertainty as well as between uncertainty and unknowability. The distinction between what is uncertain (stochastically) what is currently unknown (not yet identified, but in principle knowable), and what is inherently unknown (and must remain so for physical or social reasons) is, in certain cases, of considerable importance, e.g., cases where the affected (or afflicted) not only don't know how to estimate their risk, but know that they can't know. We examine these problems in the case of groundwater contamination where the they are pronounced because commonly-utilized methods for calculating risk fold all nucertainties and unknowns together as an aggregated "uncertainty", and because understanding risks requires esoteric knowledge.
机译:在不同类型的不确定性之间以及不确定性和不可知性之间存在或应该存在明显的区别。在某些情况下,不确定性(随机),当前未知(尚未确定,但原则上可以知道)与固有未知(必须出于物理或社会原因而必须保持)之间的区别在某些情况下非常重要,例如,受影响(或受折磨)的患者不仅不知道如何估算其风险,而且知道自己不知道。我们在地下水污染的情况下研究这些问题,因为它们是众所周知的,因为常用的计算风险的方法将所有不确定性和未知数归为一个总的“不确定性”,并且因为了解风险需要深奥的知识。

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