Weapons containing significant quantities of high explosive (HE) are sometimes located in close proximity. If an explosion occurs in a weapon, the possibility of propagation to one or more additional weapons may exist, with severe consequencespossibly resulting. In the general case, a system of concern consists of multiple weapons and various other objects in a complex, three-dimensional geomety. In each weapon, HE is enclosed by (casing) materials that function as protection in the event of a neighbor detonation, but the materials become a source of fragments if the HE is initiated. The protection afforded by the casing means that only high-momentum fragments, which rarely occur, are of concern. The fragments generated in an initial donor weapon are transported to other weapons either directly or by ricochet. Interaction of a fragment with an acceptor weapon can produce a reaction in the acceptor HE and result in a second detonation. Analysis of this problem requires an approach that can both define the circumstances under which rare events can occur and calculate the probability of such occurrences. In this paper, we describe a comprehensive methodology to estimate the probability of various consequences for fragment-induced propagating detonations in arrays of weapons containing HE. Our approach is based on combining process tree methodology with Monte Carlo transport simulation.
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