Probabilistic modeling of propagating explosions

摘要

In this paper, we describe a comprehensive methodology to estimate the probability of various consequences for fragment-induced propagating detonations in arrays of weapons containing HE. Analysis of this problem requires an approach that can both define the circumstances under which rare events can occur and calculate the probability of such occurrences. Our approach is based on combining process tree methodology with Monte Carlo transport simulation. Our Monte Carlo technique very effectively captures important features of these differences. Process tree methodology is described and its use is discussed for a simplified problem and to illustrate the power of Monte Carlo simulation in estimating fragment-induced detonation of an acceptor weapon.