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Uncertainty Bound due to the PDS Approximation of the Level 1 ET Sequence Cut Sets

机译:由于1级ET序列切割集的PDS逼近而导致的不确定性范围

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While a strict PDS operation requires that all the Level 1 ET core damage sequences are assigned to all the relevant PDS categories and that their sum is equal to the total CDF, the current practices of the Level 1 ET/FT combinations causes an inevitable approximation of the total PDS frequency (PDSF) for the total CDF value. The main objective of this paper is to estimate the type of uncertainty bound generated for the total PDSF (or a degree of a PDSF approximation for the CDF) due to a propagation of the Level 1 ET sequence cut sets into the relevant PDSs, consequently leading to a change of the corresponding Level 2 risk metrics (such as containment failure frequencies or large early release frequency). The plant-specific analysis shows that when the cutoff value of 1.0E-11 is applied, the PDS approximation from the Level 1/2-bridge trees may vary the PDSF value from -1.2% to 2.5%, when compared to the corresponding CDF value (i.e., a CDF value estimated from the Level 1 ET/FT models). A detailed investigation shows that the forgoing uncertainty is mainly caused by a mixed impact of a decrease of the PDSF from a truncation limit and its increase from the potential extra cut sets employed in the PDS model when the Level 1 cut sets are propagated into the PDS model (subsequently the other Level 2 models).
机译:虽然严格的PDS操作要求将所有1级ET核心损坏序列分配给所有相关的PDS类别,并且它们的总和等于CDF的总和,但1级ET / FT组合的当前做法导致不可避免地近似为总CDF值的总PDS频率(PDSF)。本文的主要目的是估计由于1级ET序列切割集传播到相关PDS中而导致的总PDSF不确定范围的类型(或CDF的PDSF近似度),从而导致更改相应的2级风险指标(例如,安全壳失效频率或较大的提前释放频率)。特定于工厂的分析表明,当采用1.0E-11的临界值时,与相应的CDF相比,Level 1/2桥树的PDS近似值可能会将PDSF值从-1.2%更改为2.5%。值(即从1级ET / FT模型估算的CDF值)。详尽的调查表明,上述不确定性主要是由于从级别截短限制到PDSF的减少及其从1级割集传播到PDS中时在PDS模型中使用的潜在额外割集引起的混合影响所造成的。模型(随后是其他2级模型)。

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