Short-Term Fluctuations of the Global Insolation and Forecast of the Generated Electrical Energy by Dispersed Photovoltaic Systems

摘要

For the operation of electricity distribution networks with utility-connected photovoltaic systems information about the future generation of electrical energy by these photovoltaic systems is essential. This information can be used in conjunction with an energy management system to coordinate the operation of controllable peak-power generators and short-time electrical storage systems. In order to get the required data it is necessary to analyze the short-time variations of the global insolation on the basis of characteristics which are predicted as part of the weather forecast. Using the obtained data predictions about the variations of the global insolation to be expected within the forecast period can be made according to the scope of the forecasted weather elements. A method to estimate the minimum electric power generation of dispersed photovoltaic systems in a given area is presented.