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Forecasting with a Dynamic Window of Time: The DyFor Genetic Program Model

机译:动态时间窗预测:DyFor遗传程序模型

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摘要

Several studies have applied genetic programming (GP) to the task of forecasting with favourable results. However, these studies, like those applying other techniques, have assumed a static environment, making them unsuitable for many real-world time series which are generated by varying processes. This study investigates the development of a new "dynamic" GP model that is specifically tailored for forecasting in non-static environments. This Dynamic Forecasting Genetic Program (DyFor GP) model incorporates methods to adapt to changing environments automatically as well as retain knowledge learned from previously encountered environments. The DyFor GP model is realised and tested for forecasting efficacy on real-world economic time series, namely the U.S. Gross Domestic Product and Consumer Price Index Inflation. Results show that the DyFor GP model outperforms benchmark models from leading studies for both experiments. These findings affirm the DyFor GP's potential as an adaptive, non-linear model for real-world forecasting applications and suggest further investigations.
机译:多项研究已将遗传编程(GP)应用于预测任务,并取得了良好的结果。但是,这些研究与应用其他技术的研究一样,都假定为静态环境,因此不适合由变化的过程生成的许多实际时间序列。这项研究调查了专门针对非静态环境中的预测量身定制的新“动态” GP模型的开发。这种动态预测遗传程序(DyFor GP)模型结合了多种方法,可以自动适应不断变化的环境,并保留从先前遇到的环境中学到的知识。 DyFor GP模型已实现并经过测试,可以预测实际经济时间序列(即美国国内生产总值和消费者价格指数通货膨胀)的有效性。结果表明,对于两个实验,DyFor GP模型均优于领先研究的基准模型。这些发现肯定了DyFor GP作为用于现实世界的预测应用的自适应非线性模型的潜力,并建议进行进一步的研究。

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