Nonparametric dam risk analysis for dam rehabilitation in South Korea

摘要

The overall objective of the present study is to formulate a practical methodology to evaluate, systematically and quantitatively, the risk of failure in an existing dam. Uncertainties can be described in terms of a probability function of statistical parameters such as standard deviation, variance, coefficient of variation, etc. The dam risk analysis using parametric Monte Carlo Simulation, which revealed a weakness as being the hardest problem in analysis techniques, cannot define correct probability distribution about hydraulic/hydrological uncertainty variables. Therefore, accurate dam risk analysis becomes possible by applying nonparametric method that can solve problem as assuming probability distribution function. This research can secure reliability about analysis result by introducing nonparametric method that supplement problem of existing parametric method about uncertainty connoted in hydraulic/hydrologic analysis. In addition, risk analysis provides a quantitative measurement of dam safety so that priorities in rehabilitation, inspection, remedial work, allocation of funds, and emergency preparedness among different dams can be determinated.