Resilience Analysis of Civil Defence Organization:a Fuzzy Cognitive Map based approach

摘要

Despite the development of innovative technologies of prevention and techniques for landrnmonitoring, the occurrence of hydrogeological disasters (e.g. landslides, debris flows or mudflows) isrnstill a remarkable risk for several urban areas in the world. In this context the case of the Italian regionrnis particularly relevant, being affected by these events as consequence of simultaneous effect ofrnground configuration (alpine land) and heavy rainfalls. Thus a strategy of intervention after disaster isrnrequested for mitigating the effects of these unpredictable occurrences. A relevant problem isrnrepresented by the coordination within and between organizations in the emergency context; indeedrnthe vulnerability of coordination mechanisms might increase with incorrect or "off target" efforts,rnreducing the effectiveness of the plan. An approach to identify, analyse and prevent these potentialrnvulnerabilities of a Civil Defence system is needed and the concept of system resilience is particularlyrnsuitable to this end. The present work proposes a method for the resilience analysis of a complexrnorganisation (e.g. Civil Defence system) based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. The Resilience Analysisrnsupported by quantitative results obtained from the model revealed the principal resources, within thernCivil Defence system, capable of restoring an adequate level of performance of critical processesrn(decision making, communication, resource allocation) in the face of disturbing or disruptingrnconditions at the operational level.