General models of ship risk during port manoeuvres

摘要

This paper presents the concept of a general model of ship risk in restricted areas. The paper is focused on the probabilistic side of risk assessment, without complete consequence analysis. Two prevailing kinds of accidents are included in the model. The main problem described in the paper is in the treatment of ships behaviour on restricted areas as a stochastic process. The necessary data for building such general models can be obtained from real experiments or simulation experiments like those presented in this paper. Several methods of accident modelling are proposed, especially for accidents of exiting safety horizontal borders of a waterway. The general models of risk can be used in risk assessment methods, decision support systems and safety evaluation of marine systems.