Development of mode choice for Delhi

摘要

Delhi, the capital of India has a population of about twelve million in 1999, which is likely to increase to thirteen million by the year 2001. The city is dependent on buses only as means of mass transport. Surveys conducted in 1994 indicated that buses are catering to around 62 % of the total vehicular trips and the residual 38 % trips are catered by private modes. The Government of India has recently approved implementation of a Mass Rapid Transport System for the city for a cost of around Rs 60 billion (1996 Prices). Forecasting the modal split in favour of mass transport with the implementation of MRTS was a task not taken up for long. The Master Plan developed by the development agency of Delhi has forecasted a modal split of 75 % in favor of mass transport, based on trend analysis. The need for systematically ascertaining the mode choice for the future taking into consideration the various combination of fare levels and time of travel was felt it and was decided to develop a mode choice model. Fresh consumer preference survey was carried out in 1998. within Delhi Urban Area, with a sample size of 5000 commuters. The Performa was to get the perceived values for time and cost for the commuters. As the value of time and cost would grossly depend on the economic status of the commuter, the commuters were divided into two groups: vehicle owners and non-vehicle owners. This method was found to be better than attempting to obtain information about income of commuters which is generally not realistic. Based on the opinion of the commuters, the perceived walk time, waiting time, in-vehicle time, parking time, travel cost, parking cost and convenience were modelled and the value of time for the two groups (vehicle and non-vehicle owners) was derived. The analysis yielded stated preference coefficients, which relates to perceived value of time. Logit model was use to get modal split. A sensitivity analysis was carried out to ascertain the fare elasticity of ridership on the proposed MRTS.