Cointegration analysis between electricity consumption and economic growth in Fujian Province

摘要

In the new economic situation, more and more researchers began to pay attention to the electricity market. Government departments attach great importance to the growth of electricity consumption. This paper tries to investigate the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Fujian Province China, using monthly data during January 2014 (2014m01) to May 2017 (2017m05). Investment, consumption and export data instead of only Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data is used to represent the economic growth, which indicates their individual effect on electricity consumption. Dickey-Fuller (DF) tests reveal that all the time series are non-stationary and individually integrated of order one. Long-run cointegration relationships between investment, consumption, export and electricity consumption individually are revealed by Engel-Granger (EG) tests. Furthermore, this paper shows that there exist unidirectional Granger causalities running from investment, consumption and export to electricity consumption based on Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) models, which are verified robust and can be used for policy analysis.