Water consumption and economic growth in Jordan: An input-output analysis.

摘要

The problem of water shortage in Jordan has increased over time and has recently become an acute problem, particularly during the drought. Various factors contribute to water shortages in Jordan such as the arid climate of Jordan, the increasing demographic pressure, the expansion of the economy, and the water rights conflict over the Jordan River. Moreover, changes in the sectoral composition of water demand in the economy call for a countrywide water plan involving the rethinking of policy regarding the present plan of allocation of water resources among different uses.; The objective of this research is to show how the problem of water shortages in Jordan could affect the process of its economic growth and development. To do so, we estimate two growth scenarios for the economy of Jordan over the period 1990 to 2000 and take these as alternative objective functions (or welfare functions) for economic and social development in Jordan. Our primary concern is to determine the feasibility of achieving these goals. The model utilized in this study is an input-output matrix of Jordan for the year 1983. Using that, we determine the effects on the level of demand for water of an expansion in the Jordanian economy as it pursues its plan for growth and development.; The primary focus of this research is on the demand for water created by the requirements of water for different sectors as the result of meeting the growth goals explained by the plan. The study has shown that with the limited supply, there will be a deficit under both growth scenarios in the water supply in Jordan from the year 1995 onward.; Finally, the study has focused on various plans that may alleviate the problem by encouraging water conservation at three broad levels: the domestic, the industrial, and the agricultural. It is necessary to emphasize other measures for increasing water supply through sources such as; recycling effluent, desalination, improving storage and delivery systems, studying the feasibility of cloud seeding, and importing water from water-rich neighboring countries. Moreover, the issue of water rights between Jordan and its neighboring countries must be expeditiously resolved.