The next 50 years of the ISRM and anticipated future progress in rock mechanics

摘要

This paper on the 50-year anticipated future of the ISRM and rock mechanics forms part of the ISRM 50-year anniversary celebrations and complements the preceding paper by ET Brown in these proceedings on the previous 50 years of the ISRM.The current status of rock mechanics and the unsolved problems are summarised—so that the results of extrapolating our current capabilities can be considered. The problems are noted under the headings of geology, rock stress, intact rock, fractures, water flow, modelling and design. The anticipated future developments are then highlighted under the headings of information access, site investigation, subject integration, international co-operation, ‘intelligent’ computer programs, increased excavation speed and larger excavations, environmental aspects, the future of the ISRM itself, and the implications of future computing power. It is predicted that the greatest changes to rock mechanics and the ISRM itself will result from the continuing growth in computing power.