FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE NETHERLANDS WITH FOCUS ON THE EXPECTED DAMAGES AND LOSS OF LIFE

摘要

Large parts of the Netherlands lie below sea level and are threatened by river floods. The flood depths in some areas can therefore become higher than 7 meters. Without the protection of dunes, dikes and hydraulic structures more than half of the country would be almost permanently flooded as is shown in Figure 1. Therefore, flood protection has always received much attention. There is always the possibility of flooding. But how serious is this danger? It is difficult to say. Especially shortly after a (near) disaster the situation is perceived as unsafe. Dunes and water defences protect the country, yet never 100%. There is no such thing as absolute safety against flooding. The question is which risks are acceptable and which ones are not. This is an ever-recurring socio-political consideration, which is fed by developments in the state of knowledge. In the last decade of the 20th century methods have been developed to determine the probability of flooding and its consequences. The outcomes of this research offer new insights and moreover new possibilities to carry out a cost-benefit analysis for various flood protection strategies.