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Genetic algorithms optimization of hedging rules for operation of the multi-purpose Ubonratana Reservoir in Thailand

机译:泰国Ubonratana水库多功能水库套期保值规则的遗传算法优化

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This study has developed optimal hedging policies for the multi-purpose Ubonratana Reservoir in northeastern Thailand based on its existing rule curves. The hedging policy was applied whenever the reservoir storage falls below a critical level for each month of the year. The decision variables, i.e. the set of monthly storages defining the critical rule curve that triggers rationing and the rationing ratio, were optimized by genetic algorithm (GA). Both single stage (i.e. with one critical rule curve and one rationing ratio) and two-stage (with two critical rule curves and ratios) of the hedging policy were considered in the optimization. To test the effect of the optimized hedging policies on reservoir performance, simulations were carried out, forced alternatively with the existing rule curves (i.e. without hedging) and the two optimized hedging policies. Performance was summarized in terms of reliability (time- and volume-based) and vulnerability. The results showed that the vulnerability was significantly reduced by using the optimized hedging rules. However, the number of water shortages increased with the optimized rules, causing the time-based reliability to worsen significantly. This should not be of concern since, although the number of shortages increased, the associated shortage quantities on most of these additional occasions were small, leaving the volumetric reliability largely unchanged.
机译:这项研究基于现有的规则曲线,为泰国东北部的多功能乌汶叻那水库开发了最优套期保值政策。在一年中的每个月中,只要水库存储量低于临界水平,就会应用对冲政策。通过遗传算法(GA)优化了决策变量,即定义触发配给和配给比率的关键规则曲线的每月存储量的集合。在优化过程中,同时考虑了对冲政策的单阶段(即具有一条关键规则曲线和一个配给比率)和两阶段(具有两条关键规则曲线和比率)。为了测试优化对冲策略对油藏性能的影响,进行了模拟,并强制使用现有规则曲线(即不进行对冲)和两个优化对冲策略进行强制模拟。从可靠性(基于时间和数量)和漏洞方面总结了性能。结果表明,使用优化的对冲规则可以显着减少漏洞。但是,随着优化规则的出现,缺水的数量增加了,导致基于时间的可靠性大大恶化。不必担心,因为尽管短缺的数量增加了,但在大多数其他情况下,相关的短缺数量却很小,而体积可靠性却基本保持不变。

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