COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMICS OF NUCLEAR POWER AND OTHER OPTIONS

摘要

The paper presents results on comparative costs of alternative energy sources for electricity generation, i.e. nuclear power, fossil fuels and renewable energies, drawing from recent OECD/NEA studies. Both direct costs, environmental costs and other external costs and benefits are dealt with. The alternatives considered are base load power plants capable of substantial contribution to grid connected power supply in the year 2000 or shortly thereafter. The realistic alternatives in OECD countries include advanced coal and gas fired power plants, state-of-the-art and advanced nuclear power plants and some renewable technologies which have reached the stage of commercial development. The direct costs of electricity generation are based upon the constant-money levelized lifetime cost methodology. Direct costs incorporate investments for construction and decommissioning of power plants, O&M costs and fuel cycle costs including waste management and disposal. The costs are calculated using reference performance assumptions regarding in particular lifetimes and load factors of the power plants. An assessment of the environmental costs and benefits and of other externalities is also given. The studies carried out by the OECD/NEA, in co-operation with other international organizations, highlight that the costs of electricity generation are sensitive to the discount rates adopted, the anticipated fossil fuel price trends and policies regarding environmental protection measures and regulations. At a discount rate of 5%, nuclear power would be the cheapest option in most OECD countries. At a discount rate of 10%, nuclear power is projected to retain its overall advantage over fossil fuels in France and Japan. However, at this high discount rate, the gas combined cycle would be the cheapest alternative in several countries. The paper provides detailed comparisons of electricity generation costs and their different components. The paper offers some tentative conclusions on the comparative 'full' costs of electricity generation and points out the need for further research in order to assess more comprehensively all externalities.