'Life without nuclear power': A nuclear plant retirement formulation model and guide based on economics. San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station case: Economic impacts and reliability considerations leading to plant retirement.

摘要

Traditionally, electric utilities have been slow to change and very bureaucratic in nature. This culture, in and of itself, has now contributed to a high percentage of United States electric utilities operating uneconomical nuclear plants (Crooks, 2014). The economic picture behind owning and operating United States nuclear plants is less than favorable for many reasons including rising fuel, capital and operating costs (EUCG, 2012).;This doctoral dissertation is specifically focused on life without nuclear power. The purpose of this dissertation is to create a model and guide that will provide electric utilities who currently operate or will operate uneconomical nuclear plants the opportunity to economically assess whether or not their nuclear plant should be retired. This economic assessment and stakeholder analysis will provide local government, academia and communities the opportunity to understand how Southern California Edison (SCE) embraced system upgrade import and "voltage support" opportunities to replace "base load" generation from San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) versus building new replacement generation facilities. This model and guide will help eliminate the need to build large replacement generation units as demonstrated in the SONGS case analysis.;The application of The Nuclear Power Retirement Model and Guide will provide electric utilities with economic assessment parameters and an evaluation assessment progression needed to better evaluate when an uneconomical nuclear plant should be retired. It will provide electric utilities the opportunity to utilize sound policy, planning and development skill sets when making this difficult decision.;There are currently 62 nuclear power plants (with 100 nuclear reactors) operating in the United States (EIA, 2014). From this group, 38 are at risk of early retirement based on the work of Cooper (2013). As demonstrated in my model, 35 of the 38 nuclear power plants qualify to move to the economic assessment review and then on to the stakeholder cost benefit analysis (if model qualifications are met) leading to a final plant retirement decision. This application via the model and guide, in turn, will lead electric utilities to explore system upgrade import opportunities and mitigation measures versus building new replacement generation facilities.;United States nuclear reactors are licensed for 40 years with a 20 year extension available prior to the expiration date (EIA, 2013). Since late 2012, electric power companies have announced the early retirement of four uneconomical nuclear power plants while other studies have indicated that as many as 70 percent of United States nuclear power plants are potentially at risk for early retirement (Crooks, 2014 and Cooper, 2013). A high percentage of these aforementioned nuclear plants have operating licenses that will not expire until 2030 and beyond. Thus, for the most part, replacement power contingency planning has not been initiated for these plants or is still in preliminary stages.;The recent nuclear plant retirements are the first since 1998 (EIA, 2013). Decisions to retire the plants involved concerns over maintenance and repair costs as well as declining profitability (EIA, 2013). In addition, the Energy Information Administration (2010-2012) released data that demonstrated that the worst 25 percent of United States nuclear plants are far more expensive to operate and generate electricity than new gas plants.;It is equally important to understand and explain the economic and power replacement implications to both ratepayers and end-users. A SONGS case study analysis will review the economic, operational and political challenges that SCE faced leading to the retirement decision of SONGS. As preface to the case study, replacement steam generators (RSGs) were installed in Unit 2 in 2009 and in Unit 3 in 2010. In January 2012, while Unit 2 was down for routine maintenance, a small leak was discovered inside a steam generator in Unit 3. Because of the situation, both units remained shut down to evaluate the cause of the leakage and to make repairs.;SCE submitted plans to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to re-start Unit 2 at reduced power. However, concerns over the length of the review process and the high costs associated with steam generator repairs led SCE to retire both reactors (SCE SONGS Fact Sheets, 2012-2013).;Finally, collaborative resource power replacement planning is needed more than ever as nuclear facilities in the United States are now being retired for economic related reasons (Crooks, 2014). This collaborative power replacement process and implementation must encompass all relevant stakeholders including state grid operators, ratepayers, shareholders and the electric utility company.