Predicted Effects of the Expansion of the Panama Canal on Global GHG Emissions due to Changes in Shipping Patterns

摘要

The expansion of the Panama Canal, which is expected to be completed by 2015, it will allow bigger ships (up to 10,000 TEU (a 20x8x8 foot container) from 4,500 TEU today) to transverse the Canal through the construction of bigger locks, widening and deepening the access channels, and increasing the operating water level of Lake Gatun.The expansion, by allowing the passage of bigger ships, will change shipping patterns around the globe. It is expected to result in reductions in transits through the Suez Canal and to the United States West Coast ports (changing the overland transport of cargo from the Far East to the U.S. East Coast), and increased traffic through the Panama Canal going between the Far East and the U.S. East Coast ports. According to market demand model predictions conducted by the Panama Canal Authority, the most affected shipping segments will be container, automobile, and grain carriers.This could influence the global climate by reducing the greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted by ships and land transportation sources. The paper presents the analysis and results of the evaluation of carbon dioxide (CO_2) emissions along the international shipping routes and the land transit routes across the U.S. The analysis, which compared the emissions of the expanded Canal with the unexpanded (existing) Canal, was conducted for three horizon years: 2015, 2020, and 2025. The results indicated that in the first year of full operation of the expanded Panama Canal (2015) global CO_2 emissions are expected to increase compared to the unexpended Canal emissions. By the 2020, this increase is expected to be an order of magnitude smaller. After 2020 when the saturation of the unexpanded Canal would force more large ships through the longer route via the Suez Canal significant CO_2 benefits with the expanded Canal are anticipated to materialize.