巴拿马运河扩建对中美集装箱运输路径选择的影响

摘要

巴拿马运河的扩建将对集装箱海运航线网络、港口布局及船舶结构等产生深远影响,推动全球海运格局的演变.对此,在分析中美航线集装箱贸易运输现状的基础上,对比巴拿马运河扩建前后中美集装箱运输不同路径的运输时间和运输成本.利用路径选择模型分析巴拿马运河扩建后集装箱货流分布的变化,分析中美集装箱航线网络格局可能的变化,为相关主体应对巴拿马运河扩建提供决策依据.%The Panama Canal expansion will promote the evolution of global shipping pattern, and have a far-reaching influence on the container shipping route network, port layout, ship structure, and so on.The current situation of Sino-US trade and transport routes of the containers is analyzed, and Sino-US container shipping transportation time and cost of different paths before and after the Panama Canal expansion is compared.It also analyzes the changes of container cargo flow distribution after the Panama Canal expansion by the route choice model, and the possible changes in the pattern of the container route network.The decision basis for the related subjects is provided responding to the Panama Canal expansion.