Analytic mode for Predicting the Failure risk of pipeline System

摘要

The objective of this paper is to develop Risk analytic model that ranks risk priorityrnof potential risk events in underground pipeline system. Risk priority, correspondingrnwith the actual condition in the pipeline system, helps asset manager to target andrnrefine maintenance plans, capital expenditure plans, investigative activities, and dealrnwith potential failure before it occurs. The risk analytic model predicts the failurernprobability level and the failure consequence and then prioritizes the failure risk.rnLinear model and “max” average method were called separately to evaluate the riskrnoccurrence probability based on the available data of pipeline system and rate thernrisk consequence scale, while Ordinal risk matrix was developed to rank the riskrnpriority by combining the risk probability level and consequence level.